Vegas Golden Knights at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions

2025-11-20 • Delta Center

Utah Hockey Club 1 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

UTA: 49.1%

VGK: 50.9%

Expected Goals

UTA: 3.15

VGK: 2.91

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	UTA	VGK
Season SV%	0.895	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.68	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	33	29	4	87.9%	3.35	3	-0.65
VGK	Akira Schmid	26	25	1	96.2%	2.99	3	1.99

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • UTA at home vs VGK: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-05-01	UTA 1 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-29	VGK 5 - 4 UTA	VGK	VGK
2026-04-27	UTA 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2026-04-24	UTA 4 - 2 VGK	UTA	VGK
2026-04-21	VGK 2 - 3 UTA	UTA	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	UTA	13	1	0.77
1	VGK	10	0	0.71
2	UTA	16	1	0.93
2	VGK	19	3	2.14
3	UTA	13	1	1.29
3	VGK	10	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown