Los Angeles Kings at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-11-20 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 4 - 3 Los Angeles Kings (SO)

🚨 Upset Win (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 39.1%

LAK: 60.9%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.41

LAK: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 5.6

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

LAK

Anton Forsberg - 6-6-3 | 0.901 SV% | 2.70 GAA

Stat	SJS	LAK
Season SV%	0.896	0.901
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	2.70

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	37	34	3	91.9%	3.98	2	0.98
LAK	Anton Forsberg	27	23	4	85.2%	4.19	3	0.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 55% • SJS at home vs LAK: 3-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-07	LAK 3 - 4 SJS	SJS	LAK
2025-11-20	SJS 4 - 3 LAK	SJS	LAK
2025-10-28	SJS 3 - 4 LAK	LAK	LAK
2025-03-30	LAK 8 - 1 SJS	LAK	LAK
2024-11-25	SJS 7 - 2 LAK	SJS	LAK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	12	2	1.15
1	LAK	13	0	0.91
2	SJS	13	0	1.01
2	LAK	20	0	1.26
3	SJS	8	0	0.66
3	LAK	22	2	1.61
4	SJS	4	0	0.41
4	LAK	0	0	0.00
5	SJS	3	1	0.96
5	LAK	3	0	0.19

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.4

Score Breakdown

San Jose Sharks 4 - 3 Los Angeles Kings

Expected: 2.4 - 3.0