Minnesota Wild at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-11-21 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 0 - 5 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 59.8%

MIN: 40.2%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.71

MIN: 2.60

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	PIT	MIN
Season SV%	0.886	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	21	16	5	76.2%	2.76	0	-2.24
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	19	19	0	100.0%	2.06	0	2.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs MIN: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-21	PIT 0 - 5 MIN	MIN	PIT
2025-10-30	MIN 1 - 4 PIT	PIT	MIN
2025-03-09	MIN 1 - 3 PIT	PIT	PIT
2024-10-29	PIT 3 - 5 MIN	MIN	MIN
2024-02-09	MIN 3 - 2 PIT	MIN	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	xG
1	PIT	7	0.58
1	MIN	12	0.84
2	PIT	13	0.87
2	MIN	10	0.92
3	PIT	16	0.61
3	MIN	15	1.01

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown