Columbus Blue Jackets at Detroit Red Wings NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • Little Caesars Arena

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets (OT)

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DET: 49.2%

CBJ: 50.8%

Expected Goals

DET: 3.16

CBJ: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

Stat	DET	CBJ
Season SV%	0.888	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.99	2.62

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DET	Cam Talbot	35	32	3	91.4%	3.93	3	0.93
CBJ	Jet Greaves	33	29	4	87.9%	3.14	2	-0.86

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • DET at home vs CBJ: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	DET 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ
2025-12-04	CBJ 6 - 5 DET	CBJ	CBJ
2025-11-22	DET 4 - 3 CBJ	DET	CBJ
2025-03-01	CBJ 5 - 3 DET	CBJ	CBJ
2025-02-27	DET 2 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DET	16	1	1.17
1	CBJ	17	1	1.60
2	DET	13	0	0.79
2	CBJ	21	1	1.24
3	DET	16	1	0.94
3	CBJ	13	1	1.04
4	DET	2	0	0.25
4	CBJ	1	0	0.05

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Detroit Red Wings 4 - 3 Columbus Blue Jackets

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9