St. Louis Blues at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 2 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 60.6%

STL: 39.4%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.44

STL: 2.98

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

STL

Jordan Binnington - 7-10-6 | 0.869 SV% | 3.56 GAA

Stat	NYI	STL
Season SV%	0.910	0.869
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	3.56

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	22	20	2	90.9%	2.62	1	0.62
STL	Jordan Binnington	30	29	1	96.7%	3.21	3	2.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs STL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-10	STL 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	NYI
2025-11-22	NYI 1 - 2 STL	STL	NYI
2024-11-23	NYI 3 - 1 STL	NYI	NYI
2024-10-17	STL 1 - 0 NYI	STL	NYI
2024-03-05	NYI 4 - 2 STL	NYI	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	11	0	0.54
1	STL	11	0	1.05
2	NYI	13	0	0.68
2	STL	16	1	1.08
3	NYI	21	3	1.99
3	STL	10	0	0.49

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown