New Jersey Devils at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 6 - 3 New Jersey Devils

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 54.0%

NJD: 46.0%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.04

NJD: 2.75

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

NJD

Jake Allen - 11-8-1 | 0.912 SV% | 2.52 GAA

Stat	PHI	NJD
Season SV%	0.910	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	2.52

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	35	32	3	91.4%	3.71	2	0.71
NJD	Jake Allen	29	23	6	79.3%	3.78	2	-2.22

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • PHI at home vs NJD: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-07	NJD 1 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-29	NJD 3 - 5 PHI	PHI	NJD
2025-11-22	PHI 6 - 3 NJD	PHI	PHI
2025-03-09	PHI 1 - 3 NJD	NJD	PHI
2025-01-29	NJD 5 - 0 PHI	NJD	NJD

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	16	1	1.52
1	NJD	15	1	1.45
2	PHI	17	1	1.36
2	NJD	19	0	0.98
3	PHI	11	0	0.90
3	NJD	26	1	1.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown