Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-11-22 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 40.3%

OTT: 59.7%

Expected Goals

SJS: 2.76

OTT: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Alex Nedeljkovic - 5-7-2 | 0.895 SV% | 3.06 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	SJS	OTT
Season SV%	0.895	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.06	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Alex Nedeljkovic	27	24	3	88.9%	3.04	3	0.04
OTT	Linus Ullmark	19	17	2	89.5%	2.03	1	0.03

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • SJS at home vs OTT: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-15	OTT 7 - 4 SJS	OTT	OTT
2025-11-22	SJS 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT
2025-03-01	OTT 5 - 3 SJS	OTT	OTT
2024-11-27	SJS 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	OTT
2024-03-09	SJS 2 - 1 OTT	SJS	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	14	0	1.00
1	OTT	8	0	0.33
2	SJS	8	1	0.77
2	OTT	24	1	1.64
3	SJS	6	0	0.26
3	OTT	10	2	1.07

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown