Ottawa Senators at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions
2025-11-22 • SAP Center at San Jose
San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
SJS: 57.8%
OTT: 42.2%
Expected Goals
SJS: 2.64
OTT: 3.02
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
SJS
Yaroslav Askarov - 17-15-2 | 0.888 SV% | 3.53 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | SJS | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.896 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.874 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.895 |
| GAA | 3.36 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • SJS at home vs OTT: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-22 | SJS 2 - 3 OTT | OTT | SJS |
| 2025-03-01 | OTT 5 - 3 SJS | OTT | OTT |
| 2024-11-27 | SJS 3 - 4 OTT | OTT | SJS |
| 2024-03-09 | SJS 2 - 1 OTT | SJS | SJS |
| 2024-01-13 | OTT 5 - 4 SJS | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:50 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 16:06 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 07:47 | SJS | Goal |
| 2 | 18:38 | SJS | Goal |
| 3 | 13:22 | OTT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 57.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.7
Score Breakdown
San Jose Sharks 2 - 3 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 2.6 - 3.0