Philadelphia Flyers at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-24 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 3 - 0 Philadelphia Flyers

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TBL: 59.8%

PHI: 40.2%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.64

PHI: 2.76

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TBL

Andrei Vasilevskiy - 15-7-2 | 0.913 SV% | 2.33 GAA

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

Stat	TBL	PHI
Season SV%	0.913	0.868
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.33	3.09

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TBL	Andrei Vasilevskiy	20	20	0	100.0%	1.95	1	1.95
PHI	Samuel Ersson	18	15	3	83.3%	3.68	3	0.68

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs PHI: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-12	PHI 1 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-01-10	PHI 2 - 7 TBL	TBL	TBL
2025-11-24	TBL 3 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-17	TBL 2 - 0 PHI	TBL	TBL
2025-03-13	PHI 4 - 3 TBL	PHI	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	10	1	0.82
1	PHI	10	1	0.84
2	TBL	8	0	0.65
2	PHI	11	0	0.36
3	TBL	13	2	2.21
3	PHI	12	0	0.74

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown