Detroit Red Wings at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-11-24 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 4 - 3 Detroit Red Wings

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 56.6%

DET: 43.4%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.50

DET: 2.85

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

DET

Cam Talbot - 11-6-3 | 0.888 SV% | 2.99 GAA

Stat	NJD	DET
Season SV%	0.884	0.888
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	2.99

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	35	32	3	91.4%	4.64	5	1.64
DET	Cam Talbot	20	16	4	80.0%	2.06	0	-1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • NJD at home vs DET: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-13	DET 4 - 5 NJD	NJD	DET
2026-04-11	DET 3 - 5 NJD	NJD	NJD
2026-03-08	NJD 0 - 3 DET	DET	NJD
2025-11-24	NJD 4 - 3 DET	NJD	NJD
2025-04-16	NJD 2 - 5 DET	DET	DET

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	15	0	1.33
1	DET	15	1	1.46
2	NJD	8	0	0.41
2	DET	23	0	1.05
3	NJD	7	0	0.32
3	DET	24	4	2.13

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown