Calgary Flames at Tampa Bay Lightning NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • Benchmark International Arena

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Calgary Flames

Win Probability

TBL: 61.7%

CGY: 38.3%

Expected Goals

TBL: 3.77

CGY: 2.59

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TBL at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-22	CGY 4 - 3 TBL	CGY	CGY
2025-11-26	TBL 5 - 1 CGY	TBL	TBL
2025-02-27	TBL 3 - 0 CGY	TBL	TBL
2024-12-12	CGY 3 - 8 TBL	TBL	CGY
2024-03-07	TBL 3 - 6 CGY	CGY	TBL

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TBL	15	0	0.77
1	CGY	11	1	0.76
2	TBL	19	2	1.48
2	CGY	13	0	1.27
3	TBL	7	1	0.61
3	CGY	22	1	1.80

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 61.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Tampa Bay Lightning 5 - 1 Calgary Flames

Expected: 3.8 - 2.6