Buffalo Sabres at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Win Probability

PIT: 54.5%

BUF: 45.5%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.55

BUF: 3.08

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 49%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • PIT at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-05	PIT 1 - 5 BUF	BUF	PIT
2026-02-05	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-26	PIT 4 - 2 BUF	PIT	PIT
2025-03-27	BUF 7 - 3 PIT	BUF	BUF
2025-01-17	BUF 2 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	8	0	0.47
1	BUF	7	0	0.35
2	PIT	11	0	0.77
2	BUF	13	1	0.99
3	PIT	11	1	1.42
3	BUF	29	1	1.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 54.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 4 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.5 - 3.1