Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 53.8%

TOR: 46.2%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.38

TOR: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	CBJ	TOR
Season SV%	0.909	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	24	22	2	91.7%	2.76	1	0.76
TOR	Joseph Woll	36	35	1	97.2%	3.58	2	2.58

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • CBJ at home vs TOR: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-11-26	CBJ 1 - 2 TOR	TOR	CBJ
2025-11-20	TOR 2 - 3 CBJ	CBJ	TOR
2025-10-29	CBJ 6 - 3 TOR	CBJ	CBJ
2025-04-05	TOR 5 - 0 CBJ	TOR	TOR
2025-01-22	TOR 1 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	17	0	0.74
1	TOR	9	0	0.68
2	CBJ	15	1	1.08
2	TOR	15	0	0.84
3	CBJ	16	1	1.34
3	TOR	11	1	0.74
4	CBJ	5	0	0.42
4	TOR	5	0	0.50

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 1 - 2 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 3.4 - 3.0