Montreal Canadiens at Utah Hockey Club NHL Predictions
2025-11-26 • Delta Center
Utah Hockey Club 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (56% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
UTA: 56.3%
MTL: 43.7%
Expected Goals
UTA: 3.43
MTL: 3.22
Total Goals
Median: 6.6
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 50%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
UTA
Karel Vejmelka - 27-15-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.61 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | UTA | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.897 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.750 | 0.912 |
| GAA | 2.68 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 25% • UTA at home vs MTL: 0-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-26 | UTA 3 - 4 MTL | MTL | UTA |
| 2025-11-08 | MTL 6 - 2 UTA | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-01-14 | UTA 3 - 5 MTL | MTL | UTA |
| 2024-11-26 | MTL 2 - 3 UTA | UTA | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:37 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 10:38 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 13:52 | UTA | Goal |
| 2 | 11:58 | UTA | Goal |
| 2 | 09:43 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 04:47 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:20 | UTA | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
Utah Hockey Club 3 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.4 - 3.2