Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-11-26 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 61.1%
OTT: 38.9%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.18
OTT: 2.72
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 54%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | VGK | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.864 | 0.914 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs OTT: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-25 | OTT 7 - 1 VGK | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-11-26 | VGK 3 - 4 OTT | OTT | VGK |
| 2024-11-21 | OTT 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | OTT |
| 2024-10-25 | VGK 6 - 4 OTT | VGK | VGK |
| 2024-02-24 | OTT 4 - 3 VGK | OTT | OTT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:43 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 16:52 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 13:04 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 00:51 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 02:09 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 06:40 | VGK | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | VGK | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.1%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.2 - 2.7