Ottawa Senators at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-11-26 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 57.5%

OTT: 42.5%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.37

OTT: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 5.8

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

Stat	VGK	OTT
Season SV%	0.895	0.881
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.50	2.95

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Akira Schmid	24	20	4	83.3%	3.01	2	-0.99
OTT	Linus Ullmark	37	34	3	91.9%	4.82	5	1.82

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • VGK at home vs OTT: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-25	OTT 7 - 1 VGK	OTT	VGK
2025-11-26	VGK 3 - 4 OTT	OTT	VGK
2024-11-21	OTT 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	OTT
2024-10-25	VGK 6 - 4 OTT	VGK	VGK
2024-02-24	OTT 4 - 3 VGK	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	17	0	1.06
1	OTT	16	1	0.91
2	VGK	13	4	1.68
2	OTT	13	0	0.57
3	VGK	18	1	1.42
3	OTT	8	0	0.26
4	VGK	3	0	0.42
4	OTT	3	0	0.19
5	VGK	3	0	0.23
5	OTT	3	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 57.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 3 - 4 Ottawa Senators

Expected: 3.4 - 2.9