Calgary Flames at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 3 - 5 Calgary Flames

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 60.4%

CGY: 39.6%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.17

CGY: 2.80

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 41%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

CGY

Devin Cooley - 4-4-2 | 0.914 SV% | 2.40 GAA

Stat	FLA	CGY
Season SV%	0.899	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.96	2.40

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	34	29	5	85.3%	3.79	4	-1.21
CGY	Devin Cooley	41	38	3	92.7%	5.75	8	2.75

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • FLA at home vs CGY: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	CGY 4 - 1 FLA	CGY	CGY
2025-11-28	FLA 3 - 5 CGY	CGY	FLA
2025-03-01	FLA 3 - 0 CGY	FLA	FLA
2024-12-14	CGY 3 - 0 FLA	CGY	CGY
2024-03-09	FLA 5 - 1 CGY	FLA	FLA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	27	5	2.55
1	CGY	17	1	0.98
2	FLA	15	1	0.70
2	CGY	19	0	1.14
3	FLA	23	2	2.50
3	CGY	14	3	1.67

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 60.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 8.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown