Philadelphia Flyers at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-11-28 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 63.5%
PHI: 36.5%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.64
PHI: 2.63
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 59%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
| Stat | NYI | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.918 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.936 | — |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.40 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 40% • NYI at home vs PHI: 2-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-26 | PHI 0 - 4 NYI | NYI | PHI |
| 2025-11-28 | NYI 3 - 4 PHI | PHI | NYI |
| 2025-10-25 | PHI 4 - 3 NYI | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-04-12 | PHI 4 - 3 NYI | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-01-30 | PHI 0 - 3 NYI | NYI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:52 | PHI | Goal |
| 1 | 08:30 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 19:13 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 08:11 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 05:42 | PHI | Goal |
| 2 | 01:55 | PHI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | NYI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | NYI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | NYI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.3
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 3 - 4 Philadelphia Flyers
Expected: 3.6 - 2.6