Montreal Canadiens at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions
2025-11-28 • T-Mobile Arena
Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
🚨 Upset Loss (62% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
VGK: 61.7%
MTL: 38.3%
Expected Goals
VGK: 3.52
MTL: 2.86
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 64%
Over 6.5: 45%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
| Stat | VGK | MTL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.895 | 0.889 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.903 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.864 | 0.941 |
| GAA | 2.50 | 3.01 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • VGK at home vs MTL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-27 | MTL 3 - 2 VGK | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-11-28 | VGK 1 - 4 MTL | MTL | VGK |
| 2024-12-31 | VGK 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | VGK |
| 2024-11-23 | MTL 2 - 6 VGK | VGK | MTL |
| 2023-11-16 | MTL 5 - 6 VGK | VGK | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14:30 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 02:04 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:36 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:16 | MTL | Goal |
| 3 | 18:03 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 61.7%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.4
Score Breakdown
Vegas Golden Knights 1 - 4 Montreal Canadiens
Expected: 3.5 - 2.9