Vancouver Canucks at San Jose Sharks NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • SAP Center at San Jose

San Jose Sharks 3 - 2 Vancouver Canucks

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

SJS: 47.4%

VAN: 52.6%

Expected Goals

SJS: 3.42

VAN: 3.17

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

SJS

Yaroslav Askarov - 15-10-1 | 0.896 SV% | 3.36 GAA

VAN

Nikita Tolopilo - 0-0-0 | 0.000 SV% | 0.00 GAA

Stat	SJS	VAN
Season SV%	0.896	0.000
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.36	0.00

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
SJS	Yaroslav Askarov	34	32	2	94.1%	4.46	3	2.46
VAN	Nikita Tolopilo	24	21	3	87.5%	2.67	2	-0.33

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • SJS at home vs VAN: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-11	SJS 3 - 4 VAN	VAN	SJS
2026-01-27	VAN 2 - 5 SJS	SJS	VAN
2025-12-27	VAN 3 - 6 SJS	SJS	VAN
2025-11-28	SJS 3 - 2 VAN	SJS	VAN
2025-04-14	VAN 2 - 1 SJS	VAN	VAN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	SJS	15	0	0.63
1	VAN	10	0	0.36
2	SJS	13	1	1.49
2	VAN	23	1	2.47
3	SJS	6	1	0.56
3	VAN	14	2	1.64

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 52.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown