Pittsburgh Penguins at Columbus Blue Jackets NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • Nationwide Arena

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CBJ: 50.9%

PIT: 49.1%

Expected Goals

CBJ: 3.12

PIT: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CBJ

Jet Greaves - 11-10-5 | 0.909 SV% | 2.62 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Stat	CBJ	PIT
Season SV%	0.909	0.892
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.62	3.12

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CBJ	Jet Greaves	24	20	4	83.3%	3.25	5	-0.75
PIT	Tristan Jarry	29	26	3	89.7%	3.21	3	0.21

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 70% • CBJ at home vs PIT: 4-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-09	CBJ 3 - 2 PIT	CBJ	CBJ
2026-01-17	PIT 3 - 4 CBJ	CBJ	PIT
2026-01-04	CBJ 4 - 5 PIT	PIT	PIT
2025-11-28	CBJ 3 - 4 PIT	PIT	CBJ
2025-10-25	PIT 4 - 5 CBJ	CBJ	CBJ

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CBJ	13	1	1.14
1	PIT	15	1	1.15
2	CBJ	17	0	1.10
2	PIT	13	2	1.28
3	CBJ	11	2	0.97
3	PIT	12	1	0.60
4	CBJ	0	0	0.00
4	PIT	1	1	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Columbus Blue Jackets 3 - 4 Pittsburgh Penguins

Expected: 3.1 - 3.3