Utah Hockey Club at Dallas Stars NHL Predictions

2025-11-28 • American Airlines Center

Dallas Stars 4 - 3 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Win (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

DAL: 46.1%

UTA: 53.9%

Expected Goals

DAL: 3.07

UTA: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Stat	DAL	UTA
Season SV%	0.907	0.879
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.57	2.92

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
DAL	Jake Oettinger	30	27	3	90.0%	3.43	2	0.43
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	28	24	4	85.7%	4.56	9	0.56

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • DAL at home vs UTA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-16	DAL 3 - 6 UTA	UTA	DAL
2026-01-31	UTA 2 - 3 DAL	DAL	UTA
2026-01-15	UTA 2 - 1 DAL	UTA	UTA
2025-11-28	DAL 4 - 3 UTA	DAL	UTA
2025-04-12	DAL 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	DAL	14	3	1.35
1	UTA	8	1	0.96
2	DAL	13	2	1.52
2	UTA	13	1	1.13
3	DAL	10	4	1.69
3	UTA	18	0	1.35

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown