Utah Hockey Club at St. Louis Blues NHL Predictions

2025-11-29 • Enterprise Center

St. Louis Blues 1 - 0 Utah Hockey Club

🚨 Upset Win (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

STL: 44.6%

UTA: 55.4%

Expected Goals

STL: 2.81

UTA: 3.22

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 60%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

STL

Joel Hofer - 8-8-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.87 GAA

UTA

Karel Vejmelka - 17-10-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.68 GAA

Stat	STL	UTA
Season SV%	0.901	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.87	2.68

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
STL	Joel Hofer	18	18	0	100.0%	2.29	1	2.29
UTA	Karel Vejmelka	19	18	1	94.7%	2.95	3	1.95

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • STL at home vs UTA: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-16	UTA 3 - 5 STL	STL	UTA
2026-01-09	UTA 4 - 2 STL	UTA	UTA
2025-11-29	STL 1 - 0 UTA	STL	UTA
2025-10-23	STL 4 - 7 UTA	UTA	UTA
2025-04-15	STL 6 - 1 UTA	STL	STL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	STL	15	0	1.01
1	UTA	9	0	0.46
2	STL	13	2	1.41
2	UTA	10	1	0.68
3	STL	5	1	0.53
3	UTA	20	0	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 1.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown