Washington Capitals at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-11-30 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 1 - 4 Washington Capitals

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 49.1%

WSH: 50.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.17

WSH: 3.05

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 45%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

WSH

Logan Thompson - 15-11-3 | 0.913 SV% | 2.39 GAA

Stat	NYI	WSH
Season SV%	0.910	0.913
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.39

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	19	15	4	78.9%	3.93	6	-0.07
WSH	Logan Thompson	31	30	1	96.8%	3.88	6	2.88

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 64% • NYI at home vs WSH: 2-4

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-02	WSH 4 - 1 NYI	WSH	WSH
2025-11-30	NYI 1 - 4 WSH	WSH	WSH
2025-10-31	WSH 1 - 3 NYI	NYI	WSH
2025-10-11	NYI 2 - 4 WSH	WSH	NYI
2025-04-15	NYI 1 - 3 WSH	WSH	WSH

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	14	2	1.24
1	WSH	13	0	0.39
2	NYI	23	1	1.29
2	WSH	12	1	0.82
3	NYI	11	3	1.36
3	WSH	11	5	2.71

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown