Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-12-01 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 49.3%

PIT: 50.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.13

PIT: 3.10

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 63%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Dan Vladar - 14-6-3 | 0.910 SV% | 2.40 GAA

PIT

Tristan Jarry - 16-12-6 | 0.892 SV% | 3.12 GAA

Stat	PHI	PIT
Season SV%	0.910	0.892
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.40	3.12

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Dan Vladar	27	22	5	81.5%	3.04	3	-1.96
PIT	Tristan Jarry	29	28	1	96.6%	2.94	2	1.94

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs PIT: 7-6

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-09-30	PHI 0 - 7 PIT	PIT	PIT
2026-04-29	PHI 1 - 0 PIT	PHI	PIT
2026-04-27	PIT 3 - 2 PHI	PIT	PIT
2026-04-25	PHI 2 - 4 PIT	PIT	PHI
2026-04-22	PHI 5 - 2 PIT	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	13	0	0.84
1	PIT	12	1	0.74
2	PHI	10	1	0.96
2	PIT	11	0	0.72
3	PHI	18	1	1.13
3	PIT	17	2	1.57

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown