Pittsburgh Penguins at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions
2025-12-01 • Xfinity Mobile Arena
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PHI: 58.5%
PIT: 41.5%
Expected Goals
PHI: 3.02
PIT: 2.93
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 43%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PHI
Dan Vladar - 17-9-6 | 0.905 SV% | 2.46 GAA
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
| Stat | PHI | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.918 | 0.863 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.815 | 0.927 |
| GAA | 2.40 | 2.91 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 73% • PHI at home vs PIT: 4-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-15 | PIT 6 - 3 PHI | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-12-01 | PHI 1 - 5 PIT | PIT | PHI |
| 2025-10-28 | PHI 3 - 2 PIT | PHI | PHI |
| 2025-02-27 | PIT 5 - 4 PHI | PIT | PIT |
| 2025-02-25 | PHI 6 - 1 PIT | PHI | PHI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:18 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 15:52 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 08:08 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 05:36 | PHI | Goal |
| 3 | 15:33 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 13:52 | PIT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 6.0
Score Breakdown
Philadelphia Flyers 1 - 5 Pittsburgh Penguins
Expected: 3.0 - 2.9