Ottawa Senators at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-12-02 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators
🚨 Upset Loss (64% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 63.5%
OTT: 36.5%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.84
OTT: 3.04
Total Goals
Median: 7.0
Over 5.5: 70%
Over 6.5: 55%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 18-5-4 | 0.892 SV% | 2.96 GAA
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | MTL | OTT |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.881 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.903 | 0.882 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.878 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.95 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • MTL at home vs OTT: 3-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-17 | OTT 5 - 6 MTL | MTL | OTT |
| 2025-12-02 | MTL 2 - 5 OTT | OTT | MTL |
| 2025-11-01 | MTL 4 - 3 OTT | MTL | MTL |
| 2025-04-11 | OTT 5 - 2 MTL | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-03-18 | MTL 6 - 3 OTT | MTL | MTL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 16:53 | OTT | Goal |
| 1 | 04:01 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 03:37 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 08:50 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 06:58 | OTT | Goal |
| 2 | 05:48 | OTT | Goal |
| 3 | 12:43 | OTT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 63.5%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.9
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 2 - 5 Ottawa Senators
Expected: 3.8 - 3.0