Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions
2025-12-02 • Amerant Bank Arena
Florida Panthers 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (66% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
FLA: 65.9%
TOR: 34.1%
Expected Goals
FLA: 3.56
TOR: 2.53
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 41%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
FLA
Sergei Bobrovsky - 21-17-1 | 0.871 SV% | 3.13 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | FLA | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.837 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.885 | 0.966 |
| GAA | 2.80 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 71% • FLA at home vs TOR: 6-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | FLA | ||
| 2026-01-06 | TOR 4 - 1 FLA | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-12-02 | FLA 1 - 4 TOR | TOR | FLA |
| 2025-05-18 | TOR 1 - 6 FLA | FLA | TOR |
| 2025-05-16 | FLA 0 - 2 TOR | TOR | FLA |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 07:54 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 05:24 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 14:43 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:41 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 12:18 | TOR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 65.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Florida Panthers 1 - 4 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.6 - 2.5