Chicago Blackhawks at Vegas Golden Knights NHL Predictions

2025-12-02 • T-Mobile Arena

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

VGK: 78.1%

CHI: 21.9%

Expected Goals

VGK: 3.72

CHI: 2.65

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

CHI

Spencer Knight - 11-11-6 | 0.909 SV% | 2.63 GAA

Stat	VGK	CHI
Season SV%	0.883	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.18	2.63

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
VGK	Carter Hart	33	29	4	87.9%	4.38	2	0.38
CHI	Spencer Knight	32	27	5	84.4%	4.48	3	-0.52

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • VGK at home vs CHI: 4-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-14	VGK 4 - 0 CHI	VGK	VGK
2026-01-04	CHI 3 - 2 VGK	CHI	VGK
2025-12-02	VGK 4 - 3 CHI	VGK	VGK
2025-03-28	CHI 3 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-02-27	VGK 7 - 5 CHI	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	VGK	9	0	0.37
1	CHI	16	1	0.97
2	VGK	15	0	1.24
2	CHI	13	0	0.72
3	VGK	15	1	0.61
3	CHI	10	0	0.93
4	VGK	2	0	0.28
4	CHI	8	0	0.68
5	VGK	4	2	1.97
5	CHI	4	1	1.08

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 78.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown

Vegas Golden Knights 4 - 3 Chicago Blackhawks

Expected: 3.7 - 2.6