Dallas Stars at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-12-03 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 0 - 3 Dallas Stars

🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 55.2%

DAL: 44.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.06

DAL: 3.37

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 47%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

DAL

Jake Oettinger - 16-7-3 | 0.907 SV% | 2.57 GAA

Stat	NJD	DAL
Season SV%	0.884	0.907
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	2.57

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	28	25	3	89.3%	2.72	2	-0.28
DAL	Jake Oettinger	30	30	0	100.0%	2.36	2	2.36

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 20% • NJD at home vs DAL: 0-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-24	DAL 4 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL
2025-12-03	NJD 0 - 3 DAL	DAL	NJD
2025-03-04	DAL 4 - 3 NJD	DAL	DAL
2025-02-22	NJD 2 - 4 DAL	DAL	NJD
2024-03-14	DAL 2 - 6 NJD	NJD	DAL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	12	1	0.62
1	DAL	11	0	0.65
2	NJD	18	1	1.07
2	DAL	14	0	0.74
3	NJD	14	0	0.67
3	DAL	10	2	1.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 55.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.4

Score Breakdown