Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-12-03 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets (SO)
🚨 Upset Win (50% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 49.6%
WPG: 50.4%
Expected Goals
MTL: 2.72
WPG: 3.11
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 51%
Over 6.5: 38%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
WPG
Connor Hellebuyck - 23-23-11 | 0.895 SV% | 2.86 GAA
| Stat | MTL | WPG |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.907 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.867 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.938 | 0.846 |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs WPG: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-04 | WPG 1 - 5 MTL | MTL | WPG |
| 2025-12-03 | MTL 3 - 2 WPG | MTL | WPG |
| 2025-01-28 | MTL 1 - 4 WPG | WPG | WPG |
| 2024-12-14 | WPG 4 - 2 MTL | WPG | WPG |
| 2023-12-18 | WPG 2 - 3 MTL | MTL | WPG |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:35 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 09:59 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 11:53 | WPG | Goal |
| 2 | 14:03 | MTL | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | MTL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 50.4%
Total Goals
Actual: 5.0
Expected: 5.8
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets
Expected: 2.7 - 3.1
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