Winnipeg Jets at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions

2025-12-03 • Centre Bell

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

MTL: 50.2%

WPG: 49.8%

Expected Goals

MTL: 3.14

WPG: 3.14

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

MTL

Jakub Dobes - 13-5-3 | 0.889 SV% | 3.01 GAA

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

Stat	MTL	WPG
Season SV%	0.889	0.880
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.01	3.49

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
MTL	Jakub Dobes	34	32	2	94.1%	3.10	2	1.10
WPG	Eric Comrie	34	31	3	91.2%	5.42	6	2.42

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • MTL at home vs WPG: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-02-04	WPG 1 - 5 MTL	MTL	WPG
2025-12-03	MTL 3 - 2 WPG	MTL	MTL
2025-01-28	MTL 1 - 4 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-12-14	WPG 4 - 2 MTL	WPG	WPG
2023-12-18	WPG 2 - 3 MTL	MTL	WPG

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	MTL	16	2	1.61
1	WPG	19	1	1.08
2	MTL	16	2	1.51
2	WPG	14	1	0.86
3	MTL	13	1	0.85
3	WPG	12	0	0.36
4	MTL	6	0	0.48
4	WPG	3	0	0.47
5	MTL	3	1	0.97
5	WPG	3	0	0.33

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown

Montreal Canadiens 3 - 2 Winnipeg Jets

Expected: 3.1 - 3.1