Buffalo Sabres at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-12-03 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 5 - 2 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PHI: 48.3%

BUF: 51.7%

Expected Goals

PHI: 3.52

BUF: 3.38

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PHI

Samuel Ersson - 6-5-4 | 0.868 SV% | 3.09 GAA

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

Stat	PHI	BUF
Season SV%	0.868	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.09	3.25

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PHI	Samuel Ersson	29	27	2	93.1%	3.82	2	1.82
BUF	Colten Ellis	35	30	5	85.7%	5.26	9	0.26

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 53% • PHI at home vs BUF: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-14	BUF 5 - 2 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-18	BUF 5 - 3 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-12-03	PHI 5 - 2 BUF	PHI	BUF
2025-04-17	BUF 5 - 4 PHI	BUF	BUF
2025-03-29	PHI 7 - 4 BUF	PHI	PHI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	19	0	1.28
1	BUF	7	1	1.04
2	PHI	13	5	2.13
2	BUF	23	0	1.64
3	PHI	15	4	1.85
3	BUF	19	1	1.14

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 51.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown