New York Rangers at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions
2025-12-04 • Canadian Tire Centre
Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 New York Rangers
🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
OTT: 60.2%
NYR: 39.8%
Expected Goals
OTT: 2.84
NYR: 2.72
Total Goals
Median: 5.5
Over 5.5: 49%
Over 6.5: 36%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
OTT
Linus Ullmark - 16-8-5 | 0.884 SV% | 2.86 GAA
NYR
Igor Shesterkin - 17-12-4 | 0.913 SV% | 2.45 GAA
| Stat | OTT | NYR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.881 | 0.910 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.882 | 0.942 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.926 |
| GAA | 2.95 | 2.51 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 62% • OTT at home vs NYR: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-14 | NYR 4 - 8 OTT | OTT | NYR |
| 2025-12-04 | OTT 2 - 4 NYR | NYR | OTT |
| 2025-03-08 | OTT 4 - 3 NYR | OTT | OTT |
| 2025-01-21 | NYR 5 - 0 OTT | NYR | NYR |
| 2024-11-01 | NYR 2 - 1 OTT | NYR | NYR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:30 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 09:45 | NYR | Goal |
| 1 | 03:19 | NYR | Goal |
| 2 | 07:24 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 19:16 | NYR | Goal |
| 3 | 13:08 | NYR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.6
Score Breakdown
Ottawa Senators 2 - 4 New York Rangers
Expected: 2.8 - 2.7