Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-12-04 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche
🚨 Upset Win (52% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 47.7%
COL: 52.3%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.04
COL: 3.10
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 58%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
COL
Scott Wedgewood - 21-4-5 | 0.913 SV% | 2.29 GAA
| Stat | NYI | COL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.919 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.908 | 0.966 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.13 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYI at home vs COL: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | NYI 6 - 3 COL | NYI | COL |
| 2025-11-16 | COL 4 - 1 NYI | COL | COL |
| 2025-01-28 | NYI 5 - 2 COL | NYI | NYI |
| 2024-10-14 | COL 2 - 6 NYI | NYI | COL |
| 2024-01-02 | COL 5 - 4 NYI | COL | COL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 18:20 | NYI | Goal |
| 1 | 05:56 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 18:46 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 10:04 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 08:39 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 07:59 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 06:58 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 18:45 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 01:27 | NYI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 52.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche
Expected: 3.0 - 3.1