Colorado Avalanche at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-12-04 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 6 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

🚨 Upset Win (68% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 32.1%

COL: 67.9%

Expected Goals

NYI: 2.93

COL: 3.33

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	NYI	COL
Season SV%	0.910	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	38	35	3	92.1%	3.13	1	0.13
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	42	36	6	85.7%	4.43	4	-1.57

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs COL: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-04	NYI 6 - 3 COL	NYI	COL
2025-11-16	COL 4 - 1 NYI	COL	COL
2025-01-28	NYI 5 - 2 COL	NYI	COL
2024-10-14	COL 2 - 6 NYI	NYI	COL
2024-01-02	COL 5 - 4 NYI	COL	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	20	1	1.45
1	COL	23	1	1.42
2	NYI	21	2	1.76
2	COL	10	0	0.72
3	NYI	11	1	1.22
3	COL	20	0	0.99

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 67.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.3

Score Breakdown