Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-12-04 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (74% underdog)

Win Probability

CAR: 74.2%

TOR: 25.8%

Expected Goals

CAR: 2.84

TOR: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 6.7

Over 5.5: 66%

Over 6.5: 52%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • CAR at home vs TOR: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	CAR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	21	1	1.47
1	TOR	10	1	0.77
2	CAR	18	1	0.90
2	TOR	11	2	1.25
3	CAR	16	2	1.52
3	TOR	12	3	2.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 74.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

Expected: 2.8 - 2.9