Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions
2025-12-04 • Lenovo Center
Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
🚨 Upset Loss (63% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
CAR: 62.9%
TOR: 37.1%
Expected Goals
CAR: 3.22
TOR: 2.28
Total Goals
Median: 5.7
Over 5.5: 53%
Over 6.5: 35%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
CAR
Brandon Bussi - 23-3-1 | 0.906 SV% | 2.16 GAA
TOR
Joseph Woll - 13-7-4 | 0.908 SV% | 2.92 GAA
| Stat | CAR | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.901 | 0.914 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.915 | 0.910 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.800 | 0.958 |
| GAA | 2.33 | 2.74 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 38% • CAR at home vs TOR: 2-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-04 | CAR 1 - 5 TOR | TOR | CAR |
| 2025-11-09 | TOR 4 - 5 CAR | CAR | TOR |
| 2025-04-13 | CAR 1 - 4 TOR | TOR | CAR |
| 2025-02-22 | TOR 6 - 3 CAR | TOR | TOR |
| 2025-01-09 | CAR 6 - 3 TOR | CAR | CAR |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 00:53 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 11:45 | TOR | Goal |
| 1 | 15:45 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 04:44 | TOR | Goal |
| 2 | 10:39 | TOR | Goal |
| 3 | 18:16 | TOR | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 62.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 6.0
Expected: 5.5
Score Breakdown
Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs
Expected: 3.2 - 2.3