Toronto Maple Leafs at Carolina Hurricanes NHL Predictions

2025-12-04 • Lenovo Center

Carolina Hurricanes 1 - 5 Toronto Maple Leafs

🚨 Upset Loss (76% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CAR: 75.9%

TOR: 24.1%

Expected Goals

CAR: 3.78

TOR: 3.04

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CAR

Frederik Andersen - 5-9-2 | 0.865 SV% | 3.38 GAA

TOR

Joseph Woll - 8-4-1 | 0.914 SV% | 2.74 GAA

Stat	CAR	TOR
Season SV%	0.865	0.914
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.38	2.74

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CAR	Frederik Andersen	24	19	5	79.2%	4.84	6	-0.16
TOR	Joseph Woll	33	32	1	97.0%	3.89	4	2.89

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • CAR at home vs TOR: 4-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-20	TOR 3 - 4 CAR	CAR	CAR
2025-12-04	CAR 1 - 5 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-11-09	TOR 4 - 5 CAR	CAR	TOR
2025-04-13	CAR 1 - 4 TOR	TOR	CAR
2025-02-22	TOR 6 - 3 CAR	TOR	TOR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CAR	21	1	1.47
1	TOR	10	1	0.77
2	CAR	18	1	0.90
2	TOR	11	2	1.25
3	CAR	16	2	1.52
3	TOR	12	3	2.82

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 75.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 6.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown