Minnesota Wild at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-12-04 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 4 - 1 Minnesota Wild

🚨 Upset Win (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 41.1%

MIN: 58.9%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.09

MIN: 3.78

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 53%

Over 6.5: 39%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

MIN

Filip Gustavsson - 13-8-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.47 GAA

Stat	CGY	MIN
Season SV%	0.901	0.912
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.47

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	27	26	1	96.3%	3.10	1	2.10
MIN	Filip Gustavsson	31	27	4	87.1%	3.85	3	-0.15

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • CGY at home vs MIN: 3-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-29	MIN 4 - 1 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-12-04	CGY 4 - 1 MIN	CGY	MIN
2025-11-09	MIN 2 - 0 CGY	MIN	MIN
2025-04-11	CGY 4 - 2 MIN	CGY	CGY
2025-01-25	MIN 4 - 5 CGY	CGY	MIN

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	11	0	0.52
1	MIN	19	0	1.53
2	CGY	18	2	1.56
2	MIN	9	1	0.82
3	CGY	15	1	1.77
3	MIN	14	0	0.75

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 58.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.9

Score Breakdown