Vegas Golden Knights at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions

2025-12-05 • Prudential Center

New Jersey Devils 0 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

🚨 Upset Loss (50% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NJD: 50.2%

VGK: 49.8%

Expected Goals

NJD: 3.02

VGK: 3.00

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

VGK

Akira Schmid - 11-4-4 | 0.895 SV% | 2.50 GAA

Stat	NJD	VGK
Season SV%	0.884	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.32	2.50

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	25	22	3	88.0%	2.81	1	-0.19
VGK	Akira Schmid	24	24	0	100.0%	2.00	1	2.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NJD at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-17	VGK 1 - 2 NJD	NJD	VGK
2025-12-05	NJD 0 - 3 VGK	VGK	NJD
2025-03-02	VGK 2 - 0 NJD	VGK	VGK
2025-02-06	NJD 1 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2024-03-17	VGK 3 - 1 NJD	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NJD	8	0	0.29
1	VGK	18	0	1.03
2	NJD	18	1	1.29
2	VGK	10	0	0.80
3	NJD	12	0	0.42
3	VGK	7	1	0.98

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown