Buffalo Sabres at Winnipeg Jets NHL Predictions

2025-12-05 • Canada Life Centre

Winnipeg Jets 4 - 1 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (53% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

WPG: 46.6%

BUF: 53.4%

Expected Goals

WPG: 3.12

BUF: 2.97

Total Goals

Median: 6.3

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 43%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

WPG

Eric Comrie - 6-9-1 | 0.880 SV% | 3.49 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	WPG	BUF
Season SV%	0.880	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.49	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
WPG	Eric Comrie	35	34	1	97.1%	3.53	3	2.53
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	23	19	4	82.6%	3.00	1	-1.00

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • WPG at home vs BUF: 2-3

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-05	WPG 4 - 1 BUF	WPG	BUF
2025-12-01	BUF 5 - 1 WPG	BUF	BUF
2025-03-23	WPG 3 - 5 BUF	BUF	WPG
2024-12-05	BUF 2 - 3 WPG	WPG	WPG
2024-03-03	BUF 2 - 5 WPG	WPG	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	WPG	13	0	0.80
1	BUF	22	2	1.48
2	WPG	14	0	1.03
2	BUF	22	0	1.01
3	WPG	8	1	1.17
3	BUF	12	1	1.04

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 53.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown