Colorado Avalanche at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-12-06 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 35.7%

COL: 64.3%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.66

COL: 3.43

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Igor Shesterkin - 16-12-4 | 0.910 SV% | 2.51 GAA

COL

Mackenzie Blackwood - 13-1-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.07 GAA

Stat	NYR	COL
Season SV%	0.910	0.924
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.51	2.07

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Igor Shesterkin	42	39	3	92.9%	3.88	2	0.88
COL	Mackenzie Blackwood	27	25	2	92.6%	1.95	2	-0.05

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • NYR at home vs COL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	NYR 2 - 3 COL	COL	COL
2025-11-20	COL 6 - 3 NYR	COL	COL
2025-01-26	NYR 4 - 5 COL	COL	COL
2025-01-14	COL 3 - 2 NYR	COL	COL
2024-03-28	COL 2 - 3 NYR	NYR	COL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	15	1	0.69
1	COL	12	0	0.73
2	NYR	14	1	0.55
2	COL	16	1	1.06
3	NYR	15	0	0.72
3	COL	21	1	1.89
4	NYR	0	0	0.00
4	COL	3	0	0.21

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 64.3%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Colorado Avalanche

Expected: 2.7 - 3.4