St. Louis Blues at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-12-06 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 St. Louis Blues

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

Win Probability

OTT: 59.9%

STL: 40.1%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.33

STL: 2.56

Total Goals

Median: 6.2

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 40%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • OTT at home vs STL: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-06	OTT 1 - 2 STL	STL	OTT
2025-11-28	STL 4 - 3 OTT	STL	STL
2025-01-03	STL 4 - 0 OTT	STL	STL
2024-10-29	OTT 8 - 1 STL	OTT	OTT
2024-03-21	OTT 2 - 5 STL	STL	OTT

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	1	1.26
1	STL	2	0	0.12
2	OTT	13	0	0.94
2	STL	16	1	1.35
3	OTT	27	2	2.04
3	STL	13	3	1.34

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 3.0

Expected: 5.9

Score Breakdown

Ottawa Senators 1 - 2 St. Louis Blues

Expected: 3.3 - 2.6