Utah Hockey Club at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-12-06 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 2 - 0 Utah Hockey Club

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 55.8%

UTA: 44.2%

Expected Goals

CGY: 3.27

UTA: 2.95

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

UTA

Vitek Vanecek - 2-9-1 | 0.879 SV% | 2.92 GAA

Stat	CGY	UTA
Season SV%	0.901	0.879
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.92

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	28	28	0	100.0%	2.79	2	2.79
UTA	Vitek Vanecek	23	21	2	91.3%	3.19	4	1.19

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 83% • CGY at home vs UTA: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-12	CGY 4 - 1 UTA	CGY	UTA
2025-12-06	CGY 2 - 0 UTA	CGY	CGY
2025-10-15	UTA 3 - 1 CGY	UTA	UTA
2025-04-01	UTA 3 - 1 CGY	UTA	UTA
2025-01-02	CGY 3 - 5 UTA	UTA	UTA

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	14	2	1.34
1	UTA	18	1	1.44
2	CGY	12	1	0.89
2	UTA	11	1	0.74
3	CGY	13	1	0.97
3	UTA	9	0	0.60

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 55.8%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown