New York Islanders at Florida Panthers NHL Predictions

2025-12-07 • Amerant Bank Arena

Florida Panthers 4 - 1 New York Islanders

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

FLA: 56.9%

NYI: 43.1%

Expected Goals

FLA: 3.79

NYI: 2.82

Total Goals

Median: 6.5

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 50%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

FLA

Daniil Tarasov - 4-6-2 | 0.899 SV% | 2.96 GAA

NYI

David Rittich - 10-5-2 | 0.909 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	FLA	NYI
Season SV%	0.899	0.909
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.96	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
FLA	Daniil Tarasov	21	20	1	95.2%	1.90	1	0.90
NYI	David Rittich	30	26	4	86.7%	3.34	2	-0.66

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • FLA at home vs NYI: 2-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-28	NYI 5 - 2 FLA	NYI	NYI
2026-03-01	NYI 5 - 4 FLA	NYI	FLA
2025-12-07	FLA 4 - 1 NYI	FLA	FLA
2025-03-16	NYI 4 - 2 FLA	NYI	NYI
2025-02-02	FLA 6 - 3 NYI	FLA	NYI

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	FLA	16	0	0.72
1	NYI	15	1	0.84
2	FLA	15	0	0.70
2	NYI	13	0	0.77
3	FLA	13	2	1.92
3	NYI	8	0	0.29

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.9%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown