St. Louis Blues at Montreal Canadiens NHL Predictions
2025-12-07 • Centre Bell
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 St. Louis Blues
🚨 Upset Loss (55% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
MTL: 55.2%
STL: 44.8%
Expected Goals
MTL: 3.04
STL: 3.09
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
MTL
Jakub Dobes - 29-10-4 | 0.901 SV% | 2.78 GAA
STL
Joel Hofer - 23-13-5 | 0.910 SV% | 2.60 GAA
| Stat | MTL | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.889 | 0.901 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.891 | 0.917 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.778 | — |
| GAA | 3.01 | 2.87 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • MTL at home vs STL: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-03 | STL 2 - 0 MTL | STL | MTL |
| 2025-12-07 | MTL 3 - 4 STL | STL | MTL |
| 2025-03-25 | STL 6 - 1 MTL | STL | STL |
| 2024-10-26 | MTL 5 - 2 STL | MTL | STL |
| 2024-02-11 | MTL 2 - 7 STL | STL | STL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 08:57 | STL | Goal |
| 1 | 12:20 | MTL | Goal |
| 1 | 19:03 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 00:26 | MTL | Goal |
| 2 | 01:05 | STL | Goal |
| 3 | 10:24 | STL | Goal |
| 3 | 16:15 | STL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 55.2%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
Montreal Canadiens 3 - 4 St. Louis Blues
Expected: 3.0 - 3.1
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