Vegas Golden Knights at New York Rangers NHL Predictions

2025-12-07 • Madison Square Garden

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYR: 31.3%

VGK: 68.7%

Expected Goals

NYR: 2.53

VGK: 3.29

Total Goals

Median: 6.0

Over 5.5: 56%

Over 6.5: 42%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYR

Jonathan Quick - 3-6-1 | 0.924 SV% | 2.11 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	NYR	VGK
Season SV%	0.924	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.11	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYR	Jonathan Quick	28	25	3	89.3%	2.86	2	-0.14
VGK	Carter Hart	24	22	2	91.7%	2.31	1	0.31

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYR at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-07	NYR 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-11-18	VGK 3 - 2 NYR	VGK	VGK
2025-02-02	NYR 4 - 2 VGK	NYR	VGK
2025-01-11	VGK 1 - 2 NYR	NYR	VGK
2024-01-26	NYR 2 - 5 VGK	VGK	NYR

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYR	9	0	0.31
1	VGK	17	0	0.74
2	NYR	20	1	1.77
2	VGK	7	0	0.40
3	NYR	4	0	0.17
3	VGK	21	1	1.45
4	NYR	2	0	0.07
4	VGK	2	1	0.27

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 68.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown

New York Rangers 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.5 - 3.3