Tampa Bay Lightning at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-08 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 0 Tampa Bay Lightning

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

TOR: 56.4%

TBL: 43.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.12

TBL: 2.62

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 46%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

TOR

Dennis Hildeby - 3-5-4 | 0.912 SV% | 2.90 GAA

TBL

Jonas Johansson - 9-6-1 | 0.894 SV% | 2.83 GAA

Stat	TOR	TBL
Season SV%	0.912	0.894
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.90	2.83

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
TOR	Dennis Hildeby	29	29	0	100.0%	2.10	1	2.10
TBL	Jonas Johansson	25	23	2	92.0%	3.10	3	1.10

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 58% • TOR at home vs TBL: 9-7

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-03-07	TOR 2 - 5 TBL	TBL	TBL
2026-02-25	TBL 4 - 2 TOR	TBL	TBL
2025-12-08	TOR 2 - 0 TBL	TOR	TOR
2025-04-09	TBL 3 - 4 TOR	TOR	TBL
2025-01-20	TOR 5 - 3 TBL	TOR	TBL

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	13	1	0.82
1	TBL	17	0	0.88
2	TOR	15	0	0.57
2	TBL	12	0	0.38
3	TOR	10	2	1.71
3	TBL	12	1	0.85

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 56.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 2.0

Expected: 5.7

Score Breakdown