Buffalo Sabres at Calgary Flames NHL Predictions

2025-12-08 • Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Flames 7 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

🚨 Upset Win (51% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

CGY: 49.4%

BUF: 50.6%

Expected Goals

CGY: 2.98

BUF: 2.87

Total Goals

Median: 5.7

Over 5.5: 51%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

CGY

Dustin Wolf - 14-14-2 | 0.901 SV% | 2.82 GAA

BUF

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen - 7-5-1 | 0.903 SV% | 2.46 GAA

Stat	CGY	BUF
Season SV%	0.901	0.903
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.82	2.46

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
CGY	Dustin Wolf	29	25	4	86.2%	3.29	1	-0.71
BUF	Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen	28	21	7	75.0%	3.98	6	-3.02

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • CGY at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-08	CGY 7 - 4 BUF	CGY	BUF
2025-11-19	BUF 2 - 6 CGY	CGY	BUF
2025-01-23	CGY 5 - 2 BUF	CGY	CGY
2024-11-09	BUF 3 - 2 CGY	BUF	BUF
2024-03-24	CGY 1 - 4 BUF	BUF	BUF

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	CGY	17	0	0.91
1	BUF	13	0	0.88
2	CGY	13	4	1.71
2	BUF	23	1	1.61
3	CGY	9	2	1.37
3	BUF	12	0	0.79

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 50.6%

Total Goals

Actual: 11.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown