New Jersey Devils at Ottawa Senators NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • Canadian Tire Centre

Ottawa Senators 3 - 4 New Jersey Devils

🚨 Upset Loss (60% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

OTT: 59.7%

NJD: 40.3%

Expected Goals

OTT: 3.18

NJD: 2.63

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 44%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

OTT

Linus Ullmark - 14-8-5 | 0.881 SV% | 2.95 GAA

NJD

Jacob Markstrom - 9-9-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.32 GAA

Stat	OTT	NJD
Season SV%	0.881	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.95	3.32

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
OTT	Linus Ullmark	32	28	4	87.5%	2.69	1	-1.31
NJD	Jacob Markstrom	38	35	3	92.1%	3.76	5	0.76

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 44% • OTT at home vs NJD: 3-5

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-10-12	NJD 1 - 4 OTT	OTT	NJD
2026-04-12	NJD 4 - 3 OTT	NJD	NJD
2026-01-31	OTT 4 - 1 NJD	OTT	OTT
2025-12-09	OTT 3 - 4 NJD	NJD	OTT
2025-03-22	NJD 2 - 3 OTT	OTT	OTT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	OTT	17	2	1.28
1	NJD	19	0	1.07
2	OTT	18	2	1.27
2	NJD	12	1	0.91
3	OTT	23	1	1.20
3	NJD	12	0	0.72

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 5.8

Score Breakdown