Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders NHL Predictions
2025-12-09 • UBS Arena
New York Islanders 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NYI: 56.8%
VGK: 43.2%
Expected Goals
NYI: 3.21
VGK: 2.94
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 57%
Over 6.5: 42%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NYI
Ilya Sorokin - 20-13-2 | 0.916 SV% | 2.44 GAA
VGK
Akira Schmid - 16-6-6 | 0.895 SV% | 2.53 GAA
| Stat | NYI | VGK |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.910 | 0.895 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.930 | 0.891 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.894 | 0.833 |
| GAA | 2.55 | 2.50 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs VGK: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | NYI 5 - 4 VGK | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-11-13 | VGK 3 - 4 NYI | NYI | VGK |
| 2025-02-04 | NYI 2 - 1 VGK | NYI | NYI |
| 2025-01-09 | VGK 0 - 4 NYI | NYI | VGK |
| 2024-01-23 | NYI 2 - 3 VGK | VGK | NYI |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12:02 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 16:01 | VGK | Goal |
| 1 | 19:33 | VGK | Goal |
| 2 | 03:56 | NYI | Goal |
| 2 | 13:30 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 01:27 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 10:15 | NYI | Goal |
| 3 | 19:46 | NYI | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | NYI | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
✅ Correct
Confidence: 56.8%
Total Goals
Actual: 9.0
Expected: 6.1
Score Breakdown
New York Islanders 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights
Expected: 3.2 - 2.9