Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

Win Probability

NYI: 59.7%

VGK: 40.3%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.08

VGK: 2.96

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 57%

Over 6.5: 43%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • NYI at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	NYI

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	21	0	1.11
1	VGK	15	2	1.17
2	NYI	8	1	0.76
2	VGK	15	0	0.81
3	NYI	12	0	0.68
3	VGK	15	1	1.13
4	NYI	0	0	0.00
4	VGK	6	0	0.55
5	NYI	4	1	0.75
5	VGK	4	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 59.7%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.0

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.1 - 3.0