Vegas Golden Knights at New York Islanders NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • UBS Arena

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights (SO)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

NYI: 50.2%

VGK: 49.8%

Expected Goals

NYI: 3.59

VGK: 3.16

Total Goals

Median: 6.4

Over 5.5: 58%

Over 6.5: 49%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

NYI

Ilya Sorokin - 12-10-2 | 0.910 SV% | 2.55 GAA

VGK

Carter Hart - 4-2-3 | 0.883 SV% | 3.18 GAA

Stat	NYI	VGK
Season SV%	0.910	0.883
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.55	3.18

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
NYI	Ilya Sorokin	38	34	4	89.5%	3.91	3	-0.09
VGK	Carter Hart	29	24	5	82.8%	3.30	2	-1.70

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • NYI at home vs VGK: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	NYI 5 - 4 VGK	NYI	NYI
2025-11-13	VGK 3 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2025-02-04	NYI 2 - 1 VGK	NYI	VGK
2025-01-09	VGK 0 - 4 NYI	NYI	VGK
2024-01-23	NYI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	NYI	21	0	1.11
1	VGK	15	2	1.17
2	NYI	8	1	0.76
2	VGK	15	0	0.81
3	NYI	12	0	0.68
3	VGK	15	1	1.13
4	NYI	0	0	0.00
4	VGK	6	0	0.55
5	NYI	4	1	0.75
5	VGK	4	0	0.24

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 50.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 9.0

Expected: 6.8

Score Breakdown

New York Islanders 5 - 4 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 3.6 - 3.2