Anaheim Ducks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions
2025-12-09 • PPG Paints Arena
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Anaheim Ducks (SO)
🚨 Upset Loss (57% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
PIT: 56.6%
ANA: 43.4%
Expected Goals
PIT: 3.17
ANA: 3.02
Total Goals
Median: 6.0
Over 5.5: 55%
Over 6.5: 40%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
PIT
Stuart Skinner - 19-12-5 | 0.890 SV% | 2.79 GAA
ANA
Lukas Dostal - 22-13-2 | 0.895 SV% | 2.98 GAA
| Stat | PIT | ANA |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.888 | 0.888 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.863 | 0.904 |
| SV% vs Opponent | — | 0.880 |
| GAA | 2.91 | 3.15 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PIT at home vs ANA: 1-2
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | PIT 3 - 4 ANA | ANA | PIT |
| 2025-10-14 | ANA 4 - 3 PIT | ANA | ANA |
| 2025-01-23 | ANA 5 - 1 PIT | ANA | ANA |
| 2024-10-31 | PIT 2 - 1 ANA | PIT | PIT |
| 2023-11-07 | ANA 0 - 2 PIT | PIT | PIT |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 09:49 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 05:19 | PIT | Goal |
| 2 | 14:10 | ANA | Goal |
| 2 | 19:41 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 16:05 | PIT | Goal |
| 3 | 19:59 | PIT | Goal |
| 5 | 00:00 | PIT | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 56.6%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 6.2
Score Breakdown
Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Anaheim Ducks
Expected: 3.2 - 3.0