Anaheim Ducks at Pittsburgh Penguins NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • PPG Paints Arena

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Anaheim Ducks (SO)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

PIT: 54.1%

ANA: 45.9%

Expected Goals

PIT: 3.21

ANA: 2.92

Total Goals

Median: 5.9

Over 5.5: 55%

Over 6.5: 40%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

PIT

Arturs Silovs - 7-5-6 | 0.886 SV% | 3.20 GAA

ANA

Ville Husso - 5-3-1 | 0.884 SV% | 3.25 GAA

Stat	PIT	ANA
Season SV%	0.886	0.884
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	3.20	3.25

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
PIT	Arturs Silovs	30	26	4	86.7%	3.68	2	-0.32
ANA	Ville Husso	50	47	3	94.0%	6.32	5	3.32

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • PIT at home vs ANA: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	PIT 3 - 4 ANA	ANA	PIT
2025-10-14	ANA 4 - 3 PIT	ANA	ANA
2025-01-23	ANA 5 - 1 PIT	ANA	PIT
2024-10-31	PIT 2 - 1 ANA	PIT	PIT
2023-11-07	ANA 0 - 2 PIT	PIT	PIT

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PIT	24	2	1.99
1	ANA	12	0	0.42
2	PIT	19	1	1.25
2	ANA	11	0	0.69
3	PIT	19	2	1.86
3	ANA	13	1	1.44
4	PIT	10	0	1.02
4	ANA	2	0	0.21
5	PIT	3	0	0.21
5	ANA	2	1	0.91

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.1%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.1

Score Breakdown

Pittsburgh Penguins 3 - 4 Anaheim Ducks

Expected: 3.2 - 2.9