Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions
2025-12-09 • Rogers Place
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Buffalo Sabres (OT)
🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
EDM: 60.9%
BUF: 39.1%
Expected Goals
EDM: 3.19
BUF: 2.75
Total Goals
Median: 5.6
Over 5.5: 51%
Over 6.5: 39%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
EDM
Tristan Jarry - 18-9-3 | 0.882 SV% | 3.32 GAA
BUF
Alex Lyon - 20-10-4 | 0.906 SV% | 2.77 GAA
| Stat | EDM | BUF |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.906 | 0.906 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.837 | 0.847 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.935 | 0.875 |
| GAA | 2.73 | 2.82 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 50% • EDM at home vs BUF: 2-1
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-09 | EDM 3 - 4 BUF | BUF | EDM |
| 2025-11-17 | BUF 5 - 1 EDM | BUF | EDM |
| 2025-03-10 | BUF 3 - 2 EDM | BUF | EDM |
| 2025-01-25 | EDM 3 - 2 BUF | EDM | EDM |
| 2024-03-21 | EDM 8 - 3 BUF | EDM | EDM |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 19:01 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 11:03 | BUF | Goal |
| 2 | 11:59 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 00:10 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 01:56 | BUF | Goal |
| 3 | 19:58 | EDM | Goal |
| 4 | 00:33 | BUF | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 60.9%
Total Goals
Actual: 7.0
Expected: 5.9
Score Breakdown
Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Buffalo Sabres
Expected: 3.2 - 2.7
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