Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (59% underdog)

📊 Pre-Game Predictions

Win Probability

EDM: 59.0%

BUF: 41.0%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.34

BUF: 3.19

Total Goals

Median: 6.8

Over 5.5: 65%

Over 6.5: 52%

🥅 Goalie Matchup

EDM

Stuart Skinner - 26-18-4 | 0.896 SV% | 2.81 GAA

BUF

Colten Ellis - 4-3-0 | 0.895 SV% | 3.25 GAA

Stat	EDM	BUF
Season SV%	0.896	0.895
Last 5 SV%	—	—
SV% vs Opponent	—	—
GAA	2.81	3.25

Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats. Confirmed goalie row used when available; otherwise current projected starter is shown.

Goalie Game Metrics

Team	Goalie	SA	Saves	GA	SV%	xGA	HD Faced	GSAx
EDM	Stuart Skinner	28	24	4	85.7%	2.72	1	-1.28
BUF	Colten Ellis	30	27	3	90.0%	2.94	1	-0.06

SA uses shots on goal plus goals. xGA, high-danger faced, and GSAx use modeled scoring attempts against. GSAx is xGA minus goals against.

Head-to-Head History

Model accuracy in this matchup: 60% • EDM at home vs BUF: 3-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	BUF
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Shot Quality by Period

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	11	0	0.73
1	BUF	9	0	0.63
2	EDM	13	1	0.95
2	BUF	18	1	1.33
3	EDM	20	0	1.26
3	BUF	8	0	0.59
4	EDM	0	0	0.00
4	BUF	1	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

🎯 Shot Chart

📈 Post-Game Analysis

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 59.0%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.5

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 3.2