Buffalo Sabres at Edmonton Oilers NHL Predictions

2025-12-09 • Rogers Place

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Buffalo Sabres (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (61% underdog)

Win Probability

EDM: 61.2%

BUF: 38.8%

Expected Goals

EDM: 3.35

BUF: 3.35

Total Goals

Median: 6.6

Over 5.5: 64%

Over 6.5: 51%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 33% • EDM at home vs BUF: 2-1

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2025-12-09	EDM 3 - 4 BUF	BUF	EDM
2025-11-17	BUF 5 - 1 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-03-10	BUF 3 - 2 EDM	BUF	EDM
2025-01-25	EDM 3 - 2 BUF	EDM	EDM
2024-03-21	EDM 8 - 3 BUF	EDM	EDM

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	EDM	11	0	0.73
1	BUF	9	0	0.63
2	EDM	13	1	0.95
2	BUF	18	1	1.33
3	EDM	20	0	1.26
3	BUF	8	0	0.59
4	EDM	0	0	0.00
4	BUF	1	0	0.17

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 61.2%

Total Goals

Actual: 7.0

Expected: 6.7

Score Breakdown

Edmonton Oilers 3 - 4 Buffalo Sabres

Expected: 3.3 - 3.3