San Jose Sharks at Toronto Maple Leafs NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Scotiabank Arena

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks (OT)

🚨 Upset Loss (54% underdog)

Win Probability

TOR: 54.4%

SJS: 45.6%

Expected Goals

TOR: 3.64

SJS: 3.01

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 59%

Over 6.5: 47%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • TOR at home vs SJS: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-04-02	SJS 4 - 1 TOR	SJS	SJS
2025-12-11	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	TOR
2025-03-27	SJS 6 - 5 TOR	SJS	TOR
2025-03-03	TOR 2 - 3 SJS	SJS	SJS
2024-01-09	TOR 7 - 1 SJS	TOR	TOR

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	TOR	15	0	0.67
1	SJS	15	1	1.25
2	TOR	21	0	1.20
2	SJS	10	1	0.73
3	TOR	8	1	0.69
3	SJS	14	1	1.01
4	TOR	0	0	0.00
4	SJS	3	1	0.68

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

❌ Incorrect

Confidence: 54.4%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.6

Score Breakdown

Toronto Maple Leafs 2 - 3 San Jose Sharks

Expected: 3.6 - 3.0