Tampa Bay Lightning at New Jersey Devils NHL Predictions
2025-12-11 • Prudential Center
New Jersey Devils 4 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning
🚨 Upset Loss (58% underdog)
📊 Pre-Game Predictions
Win Probability
NJD: 58.3%
TBL: 41.7%
Expected Goals
NJD: 3.27
TBL: 3.37
Total Goals
Median: 6.7
Over 5.5: 65%
Over 6.5: 52%
🥅 Goalie Matchup
NJD
Jacob Markstrom - 15-13-1 | 0.882 SV% | 3.20 GAA
TBL
Andrei Vasilevskiy - 28-7-3 | 0.920 SV% | 2.11 GAA
| Stat | NJD | TBL |
|---|---|---|
| Season SV% | 0.884 | 0.913 |
| Last 5 SV% | 0.899 | 0.921 |
| SV% vs Opponent | 0.792 | 0.905 |
| GAA | 3.32 | 2.33 |
Last 5 / vs opponent shown when available in goalie stats.
Head-to-Head History
Model accuracy in this matchup: 56% • NJD at home vs TBL: 1-3
| Date | Score | Winner | Model Pick |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-11 | NJD 4 - 8 TBL | TBL | NJD |
| 2025-11-18 | TBL 5 - 1 NJD | TBL | TBL |
| 2025-10-11 | TBL 3 - 5 NJD | NJD | TBL |
| 2025-01-11 | NJD 3 - 2 TBL | NJD | NJD |
| 2024-11-16 | TBL 4 - 0 NJD | TBL | TBL |
⚡ In-Game Win Probability
Goals
| Period | Time | Team | Scorer |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 15:00 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 07:56 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 07:00 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 03:48 | TBL | Goal |
| 1 | 02:57 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 16:35 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 13:12 | TBL | Goal |
| 2 | 06:19 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:57 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 15:28 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 07:55 | TBL | Goal |
| 3 | 03:13 | TBL | Goal |
🎯 Shot Chart
📈 Post-Game Analysis
Prediction Result
❌ Incorrect
Confidence: 58.3%
Total Goals
Actual: 12.0
Expected: 6.6
Score Breakdown
New Jersey Devils 4 - 8 Tampa Bay Lightning
Expected: 3.3 - 3.4