Vegas Golden Knights at Philadelphia Flyers NHL Predictions

2025-12-11 • Xfinity Mobile Arena

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights (OT)

Win Probability

PHI: 41.5%

VGK: 58.5%

Expected Goals

PHI: 2.93

VGK: 3.26

Total Goals

Median: 6.1

Over 5.5: 61%

Over 6.5: 48%

Model accuracy in this matchup: 67% • PHI at home vs VGK: 1-2

Date	Score	Winner	Model Pick
2026-01-19	VGK 1 - 2 PHI	PHI	VGK
2025-12-11	PHI 2 - 3 VGK	VGK	VGK
2025-01-02	VGK 5 - 2 PHI	VGK	VGK
2024-11-25	PHI 4 - 5 VGK	VGK	VGK
2023-11-18	PHI 4 - 3 VGK	PHI	VGK

Period	Team	Shots	High Danger	xG
1	PHI	14	0	0.85
1	VGK	9	0	0.74
2	PHI	9	0	0.64
2	VGK	15	3	1.43
3	PHI	9	0	0.65
3	VGK	9	0	0.36
4	PHI	0	0	0.00
4	VGK	2	0	0.26

Shots are modeled attempts: shots on goal, goals, and missed shots. Blocked shots are excluded. High danger is xG >= 0.20.

Prediction Result

✅ Correct

Confidence: 58.5%

Total Goals

Actual: 5.0

Expected: 6.2

Score Breakdown

Philadelphia Flyers 2 - 3 Vegas Golden Knights

Expected: 2.9 - 3.3